The Autus Review

2020 Second Quarter

In 1929, the economy worsened because of policy errors - monetary, fiscal, and regulatory. History shows the worst recessions in terms of long-run economic impact are generally the product of persistent economic policy errors. Thankfully, the responses this time...

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2020 First Quarter

The global fallout from the Covid-19 virus over the last couple months has been dramatic from both a humanitarian and economic standpoint. Our hearts break for those who have lost loved ones and whose lives have been impacted by the pandemic. While the spread appears...

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2019 Fourth Quarter

The Economy The Economy The U.S. economy continued on its expansionary path in 2019, but growth was challenged by trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Business confidence was measurably impacted by ongoing tariffs and the threat of more to come. This showed up...

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2019 Third Quarter

The Economy After a decade of expansion, the economic outlook is becoming somewhat less clear. Trade wars, waning confidence, and political uncertainty have dampened the prospects for robust growth. Essentially, the current environment can be characterized as “more of...

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2019 First Quarter

The Economy The U.S. economy appears to have transitioned to a period of moderate economic growth when compared to the loftynumbers of last summer. In 2018, the economy expanded at an average annual rate of nearly 3.0%, but GDP growth this year looks more likely to...

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2018 Fourth Quarter

The Economy A combination of tighter monetary policy and trade tensions set the stage for slower economic growth expectations in 2019 and a significant revaluation in global equity markets since the end of last quarter. This is not to ignore other factors that...

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2018 Third Quarter

The Economy Nine years into the expansion, the economy is only now really starting to ramp. For most of the recovery, real GDP growth was rather stagnant, at 1%-2%. But a combination of fiscal stimulus, softening regulatory policies, and heightened business and...

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2018 Second Quarter

The Economy Economic growth accelerated a bit in the second quarter from the first quarter annualized rate of 2.2%, and some economic pundits are predicting an annualized rate of more than 3% GDP growth for the balance of the year. It appears that the potential...

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2018 First Quarter

The Economy The economy appears to be building momentum as we enter April. For the most part, economic policies coming out of Washington are broadly consistent with an acceleration in nominal GDP. The stimulative effects of tax reform, combined with other forms of...

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2017 Fourth Quarter

The Economy The end of 2017 marked the 8th consecutive year of expansion for the U.S. economy, and while the song continues, the beat is starting to change. Real GDP growth averaged about 2.1 percent from 2010 to 2016, and the best year of growth during that period...

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2017 Third Quarter

The Economy The stock market continues to grind higher, closing at record levels on almost a daily basis, despite several potential headwinds. Gridlock in Washington, constant sniping among politicians, three major hurricanes, escalating tensions with North Korea, the...

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2017 Second Quarter

The Economy Economic growth accelerated a bit in the second quarter from the first quarter, but still remains in the mid 2% range. One of the economists we follow refers to the economy as a “plow horse” versus a race horse and another refers to it as a pontoon boat...

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2017 First Quarter

The Economy The winds of change are blowing as we move further into 2017. A new political party has taken up residence in the White House, as control of the executive branch changed hands for the first time in 8 years. With it brings new policy direction surrounding...

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2016 Fourth Quarter

The Economy With an extraordinary and surprising election behind us, attention has now shifted to the potential policy changes that the new administration will bring to the economic scene. The good news of the last seven plus years is that the economy has been in...

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2016 Third Quarter

The Economy In spite of all the election year noise, it is economics, not politics, that really matters. This has certainly been the strangest political season in memory, with constant talk about email scandals, tax returns, shady activities by candidates’ charitable...

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2016 Second Quarter

The Economy History was written on June 23rd when the British populace voted to exit the European Union. During his 2013 election campaign, UK Prime Minister David Cameron promised that, should his Conservative Party win a parliamentary majority at the 2015 general...

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2016 First Quarter

The Economy Generating robust economic growth has been a global challenge since the current recovery began almost seven years ago. This ongoing condition has made world economies more susceptible to periodic “growth scares,” or fear that we are slipping into...

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2015 Fourth Quarter

The Economy The Wall of Worry just seems to keep getting higher. Sustained bull markets usually face inherent challenges, so it is often said that for a market to continue to move higher in the face of these uncertainties, it has to climb a “wall of worry.” The...

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2015 Third Quarter

The Economy It’s been a long time coming, but a cyclical market correction is finally here. China got the ball rolling in August with a harsh market decline in Shanghai, followed by a currency devaluation that called into question the health of their economy. News...

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2015 Second Quarter

The Economy Over the last six years, the economic expansion has been characterized by modest growth and low inflation. To be specific, real GDP growth has averaged about 2.2% since the end of 2009 and inflation, as measured by core CPI, has averaged around 2% over the...

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2015 First Quarter

The Economy Now it gets interesting. After three years of some of the lowest volatility in memory, nervousness and uncertainty have returned to the financial markets, resulting in wide daily swings in stock prices. Investors had become complacent with a market that...

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2014 Fourth Quarter

The Economy The U.S. economy finished the year on strong footing. During the third quarter the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 5%, supported by strength in both household and corporate spending. Interest rates declined during the year, providing additional...

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2014 Second Quarter

The Economy The great bull market continues, as investors have been strangely dismissive of any impending worries, economic, geo-political, or otherwise. Besides the fact that there have been very few attractive investment opportunities other than stocks, the rally...

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